The ‘haunted’ housing market’s real problem may be too few people, not too few homes, says J.P. Morgan’s David Kelly

He lists the ghosts in his widely read Oct. 26 research note: more than a decade of too-easy money, tariffs, and immigration policies that raise the cost of building homes while limiting the number of people who need them, and a Fed whose rate swings hit housing harder than almost anything else.

The one that should get the most attention is the people who aren’t showing up. Kelly said he expects U.S. population growth of just 800,000 a year over the next few years.

With an average household of about 2.5 people, he writes, that “implies a demographic need for just 320,000 new housing units per…