Business Insider
The Fed and bond market are sending opposite signals ahead of a crucial jobs report
The Fed gives an update on interest rates every month or two. But what investors think the central bank will do next can shift in less than a day.
This week is a great example. Heading into Tuesday, investors were pricing in a 70% chance of an October rate hike.
But then, in the afternoon, New York Fed President John Williams suggested that the bank could wait until December. The probability plummeted.
Fast forward to Wednesday morning, when the Fed's preferred core inflation measure came in cooler than expected, denting the case for an immediate rate hike. By the end of the day, odds of an October move had fallen to 37%.
The entire episode played out over roughly 18 hours.
Here comes the jobs report
As if investor expectations hadn't been…
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